Pollster Profile
Kantar Public: UK Voting Intention & Methodology
Kantar Public is one of the longest-standing names in UK political polling. The firm traces its lineage to Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS) and BMRB International — two market research houses with roots in the 1960s and 1970s. The TNS-BMRB brand was absorbed into the Kantar group around 2018. Today the political and social research arm operates as Kantar Public.
Kantar Public holds a distinctive position in the UK polling landscape: it is one of the few firms that still conducts large-scale government-commissioned research on political and social attitudes, including work for the Cabinet Office, the NHS, and various government departments. This government contractor role shapes the firm reputation and operational scale significantly.
Kantar methodology
Kantar Public uses a dual-frame approach combining telephone and online fieldwork — making it one of the last major UK pollsters to maintain a meaningful telephone component alongside online data collection. The dual-frame design addresses the coverage limitations of purely online panels, particularly the under-representation of older voters who are disproportionately important to election outcomes.
- Telephone component: A random digit dialling (RDD) sample contacts respondents by mobile and landline via CATI interviewers. Response rates typically run below 10% but population coverage is broader than online-only methods.
- Online component: An online panel provides complementary data, drawn from Kantar group panel assets.
- Blending and weighting: Telephone and online data are blended using a weighting model accounting for mode effects. Final weights are applied for age, gender, region, social grade, and 2024 General Election vote recall.
- Sample size: Voting intention surveys typically achieve 1,500 to 2,000 completed interviews. Government-commissioned surveys may use 10,000+ respondents.
- Publication: Kantar publishes monthly voting intention data, typically in the final week of each month. Full data tables are deposited with the BPC archive.
Kantar May 2026 voting intention
Kantar Public, fieldwork late April/early May 2026. n=1,717.
Recent Kantar polls: 2025–2026
| Date | Lab | Con | Reform | LD | Grn | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 25% | 22% | 28% | 13% | 7% | 1,717 |
| Apr 2026 | 26% | 23% | 27% | 12% | 7% | 1,692 |
| Mar 2026 | 27% | 23% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 1,741 |
| Feb 2026 | 28% | 24% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 1,658 |
| Jan 2026 | 29% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 1,703 |
| Dec 2025 | 30% | 25% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 1,688 |
Kantar as government polling contractor
A significant portion of Kantar Public revenue comes from government research contracts, distinguishing it from most other UK pollsters. Government survey work involves larger samples, longer fieldwork, and more complex questionnaire designs. Kantar Public has held significant contracts with the Cabinet Office for the Citizens Survey, NHS England for patient experience research, the Department for Work and Pensions for welfare attitude research, and various local authorities. These contracts require quality standards beyond what is typical in commercial research, including ISO 20252 accreditation.
Kantar house effects
Kantar tends to show slightly higher Reform UK figures compared to YouGov or Redfield & Wilton, a pattern consistent since Reform emerged as a major force. This Reform-friendly bias may relate to the telephone component, which reaches older voters more likely to support Reform. Kantar also tends to show Labour slightly lower than the cross-firm average. For the detailed house-effect analysis, see the house effects explainer.
2024 General Election accuracy
At the 2024 General Election, Kantar final polls showed Labour at approximately 37%, the Conservatives at 20%, Reform UK at 15%, and the Liberal Democrats at 13%. Against the actual result (Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Reform 14.3%, LD 12.2%), Kantar mean absolute error was 3.2 points. The firm overstated Labour by approximately 3 points and understated Conservative support by 3.7 points, consistent with the industry-wide pattern. See the full accuracy table for all pollsters.
How to read Kantar numbers
Kantar publishes monthly, making it less useful for tracking rapid weekly movements. However, the large sample and dual-frame methodology give Kantar figures more statistical weight for cross-demographic analysis. Track the full cross-firm average on the voting intention tracker. For house-effect-adjusted figures, see the poll of polls.