Scottish Conservative Polling
Third-party status, the Douglas Ross era and its aftermath, and the challenge of Reform UK eating into the Scottish right. Full polling analysis for 2026.
Current Polling — Scotland
Historical Vote Share — Scotland
| Election | Scotland % | Seats | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 GE | 14.9% | 1 | SNP swept Scotland; Conservatives near-obliterated at Westminster |
| 2017 GE | 28.6% | 12 | Ruth Davidson surge; became main opposition to SNP in Scotland |
| 2019 GE | 25.3% | 6 | Still strong in Scotland relative to UK; Davidson effect lingered |
| 2021 Holyrood | 22.0% | 31 | Second party at Holyrood; Davidson legacy under Ross |
| 2024 GE | 12.7% | 5 | Collapse in UK Tory support dragged Scottish Cons down sharply |
| 2026 Holyrood | ~16% | ~17 | Third party; Reform UK eating into right-of-centre vote |
| May 2026 poll | 16% | n/a | Stabilised but squeezed; below 2017-2021 peak |
The Douglas Ross Era and Resignation
From Davidson to Ross
Ruth Davidson transformed the Scottish Conservatives during her 2011-2019 leadership. Her unambiguously pro-Union, anti-independence positioning gave Scottish voters a clear reason to back the Conservatives as the strongest unionist force. Douglas Ross, who succeeded her in 2020, faced an impossible task: replicating that personal authority while presiding over the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss eras at Westminster — governments that consistently undermined his Scottish credibility.
The 2024 Collapse
The 2024 general election reduced the Scottish Conservatives to 5 Westminster seats (from 6) on a sharply reduced vote share of 12.7%. The collapse in UK Conservative support — the worst Tory result since 1832 — dragged Scottish Conservative polling down regardless of local conditions. Douglas Ross announced his resignation as Scottish Conservative leader shortly before the 2026 Holyrood election, citing the changed political environment and the need for new leadership to rebuild the party's position.
The Reform UK Threat
Reform UK's entry into Scottish politics has directly targeted the right-of-centre voters the Conservatives used to count on. Reform polls around 11% in Scotland — drawing largely from former Conservative voters in rural areas, the North East and smaller towns. The presence of Reform has squeezed Conservative space precisely when the party needs to rebuild, making it harder to consolidate the unionist right behind a single party.
Third Party Status
At Holyrood 2026, the Scottish Conservatives are projected to win approximately 17 seats — down from 31 in 2021. This still places them third, ahead of the Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats, and the AMS regional list continues to provide seats that pure constituency performance would not deliver. But third-party status is a far cry from the 2017-2021 period when the party was a genuine challenger to the SNP in dozens of constituencies.
Scottish Conservative Voter Profile
| Voter group | Con. support | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 55+ voters | ~22% | Still core; but older No voters increasingly splitting to Labour |
| No to independence | ~24% | Core unionist vote; but Labour now competing for same group |
| Rural Scotland | ~22% | Relatively stronger; North East and Border seats |
| 18-34 | ~8% | Very weak with younger voters; Reform and Labour dominate |
| Former Brexit voters | ~18% | Partially captured by Reform; Conservatives losing ground here |
| Small business owners | ~24% | Traditional Tory base; partly intact |
Indicative figures based on Scottish polling cross-tabs, May 2026.
The Road Ahead
Can the Scottish Conservatives recover?
Recovery for the Scottish Conservatives requires two things that are not currently happening simultaneously: a UK Conservative Party revival under Kemi Badenoch, and a clear differentiation from Reform UK on the Scottish right. Without a compelling answer to the independence question that goes beyond "No to a referendum," the party struggles to define its Scottish purpose beyond being the unionist party for voters who dislike Labour. The 16% polling floor does provide a base, and AMS ensures they will continue to hold Holyrood seats, but a return to the Davidson-era 28-29% looks unlikely before the 2029 Westminster election at the earliest.