SNP Polling Tracker
Scotland voting intention for the SNP from 2014 to May 2026. From dominance to collapse and the road back.
Scotland Voting Intention — May 2026
SNP Scotland VI Trend — 2014 to 2026
The Rise and Fall: Milestone Timeline
No wins 55.3% vs 44.7%. SNP does not resign — Salmond steps down, Sturgeon takes over. Membership surges from 25,000 to 100,000+ in weeks. SNP enters politics as a mass movement.
SNP wins 56 of 59 Scottish seats. Labour obliterated in Scotland. SNP on ~50% in Scotland — peak of their Westminster dominance.
SNP wins 63 seats — just short of majority. First SNP-led minority government. Scotland votes 62% Remain in Brexit referendum.
SNP loses 21 seats, falls to 35. Conservative recovery in Scotland under Ruth Davidson. First signs of an SNP ceiling.
SNP recovers to 48 seats. Boris Johnson wins UK majority. Brexit frustration drives SNP Scotland share to 45%.
SNP wins 64 seats — again just short of majority. SNP-Green power-sharing agreement (Bute House Agreement) follows.
Sturgeon announces resignation citing personal reasons. Humza Yousaf elected SNP leader in narrow contest over Kate Forbes.
Peter Murrell arrested. Humza Yousaf resigns after confidence vote threat. John Swinney becomes leader unopposed.
SNP catastrophic collapse to 9 seats. Scotland share falls from 45% in 2019 to 19.7%. Labour wins 37 Scottish seats from almost zero.
SNP gradually recovers in Holyrood polls to ~31%. Swinney projects stability. Party retains independence as core mission.
Swinney Era vs Yousaf Era: Polling Comparison
Humza Yousaf Era (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
- SNP Scotland Holyrood polling: peaked at 36%, fell to 28%
- Yousaf personal approval: net –8% (Scotland)
- SNP-Green power-sharing collapsed April 2024
- Police Scotland inquiry into SNP finances ran throughout his tenure
- Resigned after confidence vote threat from his own MSPs
- Party perceived as chaotic and scandal-prone
John Swinney Era (May 2024 – present)
- SNP Scotland Holyrood polling: stabilised at 30–33%
- Swinney personal approval: net –5% (Scotland)
- Governing as minority, careful budget management
- Independence focus maintained but no timeline pressure
- Party less chaotic in media coverage
- Key risk: Labour surging under Sarwar at 29%
2024 General Election: The Collapse Explained
The 2024 general election was a historic defeat for the SNP. Having held 48 Westminster seats since 2019, the party was reduced to just 9 — losing 39 seats in a single night. The Scotland-only vote share fell from 45% in 2019 to 19.7%, a drop of more than 25 points. Key factors included:
- The Sturgeon/Murrell scandal: The SNP finances inquiry and Murrell's arrest dominated Scottish political coverage for months before the election.
- Yousaf's leadership instability: His brief, troubled tenure undermined confidence in the party's governing competence.
- Scottish Labour recovery: Under Anas Sarwar, Labour offered a credible pro-Union alternative for anti-Conservative voters.
- National swing to Labour: The UK-wide collapse of the Conservative vote helped Labour in Scotland just as it did in England.
- Independence fatigue: Many voters who supported the SNP for independence felt the cause had stalled and shifted focus to Westminster-level change.
SNP Westminster Results: Scotland (2015–2024)
| Election | SNP seats | Scotland share | Change seats | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 GE | 56 / 59 | 50.0% | +50 | Post-indyref surge |
| 2017 GE | 35 / 59 | 36.9% | –21 | Snap election, Ruth Davidson effect |
| 2019 GE | 48 / 59 | 45.0% | +13 | Boris Brexit backlash |
| 2024 GE | 9 / 57 | 19.7% | –39 | Scandal and Labour surge |
The Road Back: Can the SNP Recover?
What the SNP needs for Holyrood 2026
To win a Holyrood majority in 2026 the SNP needs roughly 35%+ on the constituency vote and strong regional list performance. Current polling at 31% suggests a hung parliament is more likely than an SNP majority. The party is targeting SNP and Green cooperation to maintain a pro-independence majority at Holyrood even without an SNP outright win.
Sarwar's challenge to SNP dominance
Scottish Labour under Anas Sarwar is polling at 29% — within striking distance of the SNP. If Labour can convert its 2024 Westminster gains into Holyrood constituency wins (a much harder task given the different electoral system), a Labour-led Holyrood government becomes plausible for the first time since 2007. This would be the SNP's worst-case scenario.