Senedd 2026 Polls
Full polling data for the May 2026 Welsh Parliament election. Constituency and regional vote shares, seat projections and analysis of the expanded 96-seat Senedd.
Senedd 2026 — Constituency Vote Share
How the new Senedd system works
The May 2026 Senedd election was held under a new closed-list proportional representation system across 16 multi-member regions (each returning 6 MSs). This replaced the previous mixed-member system and doubled the chamber from 60 to 96 seats. Voters cast a single vote for a party, not an individual candidate. The closed-list system was controversial — critics argued it reduces the link between constituents and their representatives — but was designed to deliver more proportional outcomes and stronger scrutiny capacity.
Senedd 2026 — Regional List Vote Share
Seat Projections — 96-Seat Senedd
Wales by Region — Senedd 2026
South Wales East
Labour dominant in the valleys and Newport area. Reform UK made strong inroads in former steel and coal communities. Plaid modest but improving. Conservatives very weak compared to pre-2019 levels.
South Wales Central (Cardiff)
Labour stronghold. Cardiff remains the most Labour-dominated area. Lib Dems competitive in Cardiff North areas. Plaid present in Cardiff West. Greens polling well in university neighbourhoods.
South Wales West (Swansea)
Labour and Plaid compete strongly in Swansea and the Gower peninsula. Reform UK showing strong polling in Neath and Aberavon. Welsh-language presence stronger here than in the eastern valleys.
Mid and West Wales
Plaid Cymru heartland — strongest Welsh-language areas, rural farming communities, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire. Plaid and Labour closely matched. Lib Dems have historical presence in rural Powys.
North Wales
Mixed territory. Conservatives retain some support in the rural north-east (Clwyd, Wrexham border). Plaid strong in Welsh-speaking Gwynedd and Ynys Mon (Anglesey). Reform UK gaining in Wrexham and Flintshire.
Valleys (Rhondda, Cynon, Taff)
The deepest Labour strongholds in Wales. These de-industrialised communities have voted Labour for a century. Reform UK is making its most significant inroads here, but Labour remains far ahead at Senedd level.
First Minister Eluned Morgan
From Vaughan Gething to Eluned Morgan
Vaughan Gething became First Minister in March 2024, making history as the world's first Black leader of a national government. His tenure proved short — he resigned in June 2024 following controversy over a donation to his leadership campaign and a vote of no confidence within his own group. Eluned Morgan succeeded him as First Minister in August 2024, becoming the first woman to hold the office. Morgan entered the 2026 Senedd election as incumbent First Minister with a net approval rating of +3% in Wales as of May 2026.
Related Wales pages
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the 2026 Senedd election produce?
The 2026 Senedd election produced no overall majority in the expanded 96-seat chamber. Welsh Labour won the most seats but fell short of a majority under the new proportional system. Reform UK won seats for the first time and Plaid Cymru held ground. Welsh Labour subsequently formed a governing arrangement with Plaid Cymru. The Conservative group and Reform UK both serve as significant opposition forces.
How does the Senedd voting system work?
From 2026, the Senedd uses a closed regional list proportional system with 16 constituencies each returning 6 Members of the Senedd, for 96 seats total. Voters cast a single vote for a party list. Seats are allocated proportionally using the D’Hondt method. This is significantly more proportional than Westminster FPTP and rewards parties with nationwide Welsh support rather than geographically concentrated votes.
What are the approximate Senedd seat counts after 2026?
After the 2026 Senedd election, approximate seat allocations are: Welsh Labour approximately 31 seats, Plaid Cymru approximately 20 seats, Reform UK approximately 17 seats, Welsh Conservatives approximately 14 seats, Welsh Lib Dems approximately 5 seats, and Welsh Greens approximately 5 seats. The new 96-seat proportional system replaced the previous 60-seat mixed member arrangement.
How does the 96-seat Senedd proportional system work in detail?
The Senedd expanded from 60 to 96 seats under a closed regional party list system. Sixteen regions each return 6 Members of the Senedd. Voters cast a single vote for a party list, and seats are allocated using the D’Hondt method. This ensures proportional outcomes: a party with 20% regionally wins approximately 20% of that region’s seats. Small parties that previously could not win under mixed-member constituency seats now gain representation through the regional lists.
What does Welsh Labour’s governing arrangement with Plaid Cymru mean in practice?
Welsh Labour needs Plaid Cymru’s MSs to command a Senedd majority. In practice this means policy concessions to Plaid in NHS, Welsh language, and environmental areas. The most likely model is a confidence-and-supply arrangement where Plaid agrees to support budgets and confidence votes in exchange for specific policy deliverables. Plaid faces internal pressure to extract more ambitious commitments on devolution and Welsh independence in any renewed arrangement.
Could Welsh devolution expand further after 2026?
The Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales recommended enhanced devolution including taxation, justice, and policing powers. Welsh Labour has been cautious about pressing the UK government for the full range of recommendations, and the Starmer government’s position on Welsh devolution expansion is uncertain. Plaid Cymru wants to go further. Progress is likely to be incremental: individual devolution of specific powers is more achievable in the near term than a comprehensive devolution settlement.