Senedd 2026 Polls
Full polling data for the May 2026 Welsh Parliament election. Constituency and regional vote shares, seat projections and analysis of the expanded 96-seat Senedd.
Senedd 2026 — Constituency Vote Share
How the new Senedd system works
The May 2026 Senedd election was held under a new closed-list proportional representation system across 16 multi-member regions (each returning 6 MSs). This replaced the previous mixed-member system and doubled the chamber from 60 to 96 seats. Voters cast a single vote for a party, not an individual candidate. The closed-list system was controversial — critics argued it reduces the link between constituents and their representatives — but was designed to deliver more proportional outcomes and stronger scrutiny capacity.
Senedd 2026 — Regional List Vote Share
Seat Projections — 96-Seat Senedd
Wales by Region — Senedd 2026
South Wales East
Labour dominant in the valleys and Newport area. Reform UK made strong inroads in former steel and coal communities. Plaid modest but improving. Conservatives very weak compared to pre-2019 levels.
South Wales Central (Cardiff)
Labour stronghold. Cardiff remains the most Labour-dominated area. Lib Dems competitive in Cardiff North areas. Plaid present in Cardiff West. Greens polling well in university neighbourhoods.
South Wales West (Swansea)
Labour and Plaid compete strongly in Swansea and the Gower peninsula. Reform UK showing strong polling in Neath and Aberavon. Welsh-language presence stronger here than in the eastern valleys.
Mid and West Wales
Plaid Cymru heartland — strongest Welsh-language areas, rural farming communities, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire. Plaid and Labour closely matched. Lib Dems have historical presence in rural Powys.
North Wales
Mixed territory. Conservatives retain some support in the rural north-east (Clwyd, Wrexham border). Plaid strong in Welsh-speaking Gwynedd and Ynys Mon (Anglesey). Reform UK gaining in Wrexham and Flintshire.
Valleys (Rhondda, Cynon, Taff)
The deepest Labour strongholds in Wales. These de-industrialised communities have voted Labour for a century. Reform UK is making its most significant inroads here, but Labour remains far ahead at Senedd level.
First Minister Eluned Morgan
From Vaughan Gething to Eluned Morgan
Vaughan Gething became First Minister in March 2024, making history as the world's first Black leader of a national government. His tenure proved short — he resigned in June 2024 following controversy over a donation to his leadership campaign and a vote of no confidence within his own group. Eluned Morgan succeeded him as First Minister in August 2024, becoming the first woman to hold the office. Morgan entered the 2026 Senedd election as incumbent First Minister with a net approval rating of +3% in Wales as of May 2026.