Welsh Independence Polling
22% Yes, 67% No as of May 2026. How does Welsh independence compare to Scotland? Who backs YesCymru? And what would independence mean for Wales?
Welsh Independence — Current Polling (May 2026)
A minority position — but a growing one
Welsh independence polling at 22% Yes (excluding Don't Knows: roughly 25%) represents a substantial increase from the single-digit figures recorded in the early 2010s. However, it remains dramatically lower than Scottish independence support, which has polled around 50/50 throughout the 2020s. The overwhelming majority of Welsh voters — 67% — prefer Wales to remain part of the United Kingdom, a figure that has been broadly stable in recent years despite the growth of YesCymru as a campaign organisation.
Wales vs Scotland: Why Independence Polling Differs So Much
Wales — Independence at ~22%
- Deep historical integration with England (union since 1536, longer than Scotland)
- No separate legal system (unlike Scotland)
- Wales is a net recipient of fiscal transfers from the rest of the UK
- Welsh-language identity concentrated in north and west — not Wales-wide
- Labour dominance suppresses nationalist vote — Welsh Labour explicitly unionist
- Plaid Cymru has not made independence its primary near-term goal
- No independence referendum has ever been held or seriously proposed
Scotland — Independence at ~50%
- Separate legal and education systems preserved since 1707 union
- SNP majority government and strong nationalist movement since 2007
- 2014 referendum normalised independence as a mainstream option
- Scottish national identity very strong across geography
- Brexit — Scotland voted 62% Remain — fuelled independence sentiment
- North Sea oil provides independence economic narrative
- Scotland is broadly fiscally self-sufficient (though contested)
Welsh Independence — Trend Over Time
Why did independence support spike in 2021?
The Covid-19 pandemic created a period of Welsh Government visibility and divergence from England. With Wales pursuing different lockdown and vaccination timeline policies, the contrast between Cardiff and Westminster decisions became very visible. Mark Drakeford, then First Minister, was seen as a calm and competent counterpoint to Boris Johnson's chaotic handling of the pandemic in England. This elevated Welsh devolution in public consciousness and contributed to an independence polling spike in 2020–21. As the pandemic receded and Welsh Labour faced its own domestic controversies, support drifted back toward its longer-term level.
Who Supports Welsh Independence?
Age — Youth-led support
Independence support is substantially higher among younger Welsh voters (18–35) than older cohorts. Polls consistently show roughly 35–40% Yes among under-35s, compared to under 15% among over-65s. This generational gap mirrors patterns in Scotland and Catalonia, suggesting gradual growth over time if younger cohorts retain their views.
Welsh-language speakers
Welsh-language speakers — concentrated in Gwynedd, Ceredigion and parts of Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire — show among the highest independence support in Wales. This north and west heartland is also Plaid Cymru's strongest territory. However, Welsh speakers make up only around 30% of the Welsh population, limiting the ceiling of this demographic.
Plaid Cymru voters
The overwhelming majority of Plaid Cymru voters support independence, though Plaid is careful to present independence as a long-term aspiration rather than an immediate demand. Interestingly, a significant minority of Plaid voters — estimated at 20–30% — still vote No on independence, prioritising Welsh governance and culture over constitutional separation.
Geography — West vs East
Independence support is meaningfully higher in west and north Wales — where Welsh language, culture and rural identity are strongest — than in the more Anglicised south-east (Cardiff, Newport, Wrexham border areas). The east Wales border communities have strong economic and cultural links with England, making independence considerably less popular there.
YesCymru — The Independence Campaign
YesCymru: from fringe to mainstream movement
YesCymru was founded in 2014, inspired partly by the Scottish independence referendum of that year. It remained a small-scale campaign until 2019–20, when it rapidly grew in membership — reaching over 17,000 members by 2021 — and began organising large marches across Welsh cities. Unlike Plaid Cymru (a political party), YesCymru styles itself as a non-partisan, grassroots civic movement open to voters of all party backgrounds. The campaign faced internal disputes in 2021–22 over governance and direction, leading to a significant membership drop. It has since stabilised but remains smaller than its 2021 peak. YesCymru has consistently argued that Wales is economically and culturally capable of self-governance, and that the UK fiscal frameworks undercount Wales's actual economic output.
Related Wales pages
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of Welsh voters support independence?
Welsh independence is supported by approximately 22% Yes vs 67% No in 2026 polling, with 11% undecided. This is significantly lower than Scottish independence at 44–46%. Support is highest among young Welsh voters at approximately 35% and among Welsh-language speakers. The overall figure has risen from approximately 5–10% in the early 2010s but has plateaued in the low 20s.
Why is Welsh independence support lower than Scottish independence support?
Welsh independence support is lower than Scottish for several reasons: Wales has deeper economic integration with England, with higher public sector employment subsidised by the UK Treasury; Welsh national identity is less institutionally embedded than Scottish; the devolved settlement is newer; and Plaid Cymru is smaller and has less reach than the SNP as a vehicle for independence. The fiscal transfer from England to Wales also makes the economic case harder to make than for Scotland.
What is YesCymru and how active is it?
YesCymru is the main campaign organisation for Welsh independence, founded in 2017 and growing rapidly during 2019–21. Membership peaked at around 20,000 before declining following internal controversy in 2021–22. The organisation has since recovered and continues to campaign through events and community engagement. YesCymru is cross-party and does not formally endorse Plaid Cymru, though there is significant overlap in their supporter base.
What would Welsh independence mean economically?
Wales receives approximately £3–4 billion more from the UK Treasury through the Barnett formula than it raises in taxes — a fiscal transfer of around 15% of Welsh public spending. An independent Wales would need to close this gap through tax rises and spending cuts, borrow at sovereign rates, or negotiate transfers from the UK or EU accession. Independence economists dispute the scale of the gap; nationalists argue Welsh economic underdevelopment under UK policy has suppressed tax revenues. The economic argument for Welsh independence is significantly more difficult to make than for Scotland, which has North Sea oil revenues.
Has Welsh independence support changed since Brexit?
Welsh independence support has risen substantially from approximately 5–10% in the early 2010s to 22% by 2026. The biggest single driver was Brexit: Wales voted 52.5% Leave in 2016, but as economic costs became visible, some Welsh Leave voters became more sympathetic to independence as an alternative arrangement. Young Welsh voters who opposed Brexit also skew more independence-supporting. However, unlike Scotland where support exceeded 50%, Welsh independence remains a minority position even among young voters.
What path to Welsh independence does Plaid Cymru envisage?
Plaid Cymru’s current model is gradualist: expand devolution, build economic self-confidence, grow independence polling to a consistent majority, and then seek a legal referendum through negotiations with the UK government. The party rejects any unilateral approach and does not advocate the Scottish referendum-without-Westminster-consent path. Plaid’s gradualism reflects the reality that independence at 22% requires a generational campaign before a referendum would be credible, unlike Scotland where support has been near 50% for over a decade.