Welsh Labour Polling
29% Westminster VI in Wales, 31% Senedd constituency vote. First Minister Eluned Morgan leads Welsh Labour as it defends its unbroken governing record since 1999.
Welsh Labour — Vote Share by Election Type (May 2026)
Wales Westminster VI — All Parties (May 2026)
First Minister Eluned Morgan
Eluned Morgan — First Minister since August 2024
Eluned Morgan became First Minister of Wales in August 2024 following the resignation of Vaughan Gething, making her the first woman to lead the Welsh Government. Morgan had previously served as Welsh Labour's Health and Social Services Minister and, before devolution, as a Labour MEP for Wales from 1994 to 2009. She represents Aberaeron in the Senedd. Morgan is a fluent Welsh-language speaker, which carries symbolic and practical importance in Welsh politics. Her net approval rating in Wales stood at +3% as of May 2026 — modest but positive, in line with the incumbent-government premium Welsh Labour has traditionally enjoyed.
Welsh Labour's Dominance — The Historical Picture
Why Labour has always won Wales
Welsh Labour's dominance traces back to the industrial revolution and the growth of coal mining, steel and slate quarrying industries in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Strong trade union culture, chapel nonconformism and working-class solidarity created a Labour voting identity that survived pit closures and deindustrialisation. Wales gave Labour some of its safest seats for decades — constituencies like Rhondda, Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent where Labour could poll 70% or more.
The softening of the Labour vote
Labour's vote in Wales has softened significantly since 2019. Brexit created tensions in the Red Wall — working-class Labour-voting areas that backed Leave. Reform UK has stepped into this space, polling 21% in Wales at Westminster level. Labour's share has fallen from the 40%+ levels of the Blair era, though it remains comfortably the largest party. The 2026 Senedd election under PR further complicated the picture by allowing Reform to win seats Labour would previously have locked out.
Welsh Labour as a distinct political brand
Welsh Labour has consistently positioned itself as a distinct entity from UK Labour, often more left-wing and more willing to use devolved powers interventionally. Under Rhodri Morgan (FM 2000–2009), this was formalised as “clear red water” — a deliberate differentiation from Tony Blair's New Labour. Successive Welsh Labour leaders have maintained this identity, introducing free prescriptions, free school meals (in partnership with Plaid), 20mph speed limits and other distinctly Welsh policies.
The Reform UK threat to Welsh Labour
Reform UK's rise in Wales is concentrated in the same communities that Labour most needs to hold — the post-industrial south Wales valleys, Newport, Wrexham and the north Wales coast. These areas have high rates of economic inactivity, concerns about immigration and public services, and a scepticism of metropolitan cultural liberalism. Reform UK polled 21% in Wales at Westminster level in May 2026, compared to near-zero in 2019. This is Welsh Labour's most significant polling challenge since the Conservatives briefly surpassed it in 2020 Welsh polls.