Scotland Regional Polling

Central Scotland

Includes Falkirk, Stirling, North Lanarkshire. SNP dominates constituencies; Labour recovering on list. Key Holyrood 2026 battleground.

Glasgow

Historically Labour Scottish heartland, lost to SNP 2015. Labour reclaimed all Westminster seats in 2024. Most urban, most diverse, highest deprivation levels in Scotland.

Highlands & Islands

Vast geographic area. SNP strongest. LibDems retain Orkney, Shetland and some Highland seats. Least densely populated region.

Lothian

Includes Edinburgh. Urban, graduate-heavy, more pro-EU. Labour and SNP neck-and-neck. Greens have Holyrood presence here.

Mid Scotland & Fife

Includes Perth, Fife, Stirling. SNP dominant in rural parts. Labour competitive in Fife working-class communities. Conservatives retain some support in Perthshire.

North East Scotland

Aberdeen and surroundings. Historically Conservative in parts. Oil industry workers important demographic. Labour making inroads post-2024.

South Scotland

Borders, Dumfries. Most Conservative-friendly region in Scotland. Three-way SNP-Labour-Conservative fight. Rural character distinct from central belt.

West Scotland

Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, Argyll. SNP constituency dominance. Labour competitive. Reform UK showing up in some western coastal seats.

Glasgow's Political Transformation

Glasgow was Labour's Scottish fortress for decades — the city that delivered the votes that kept Labour dominant in Scotland until 2015. The SNP's sweep of Scotland that year hit Glasgow hardest in symbolic terms: Glasgow East, Glasgow North East, Glasgow South West — all fell to the yellow wave.

The 2024 general election reversed this at Westminster level. Labour's Anas Sarwar led the party to sweep back through the city. All 7 Glasgow Westminster seats are now held by Labour.

Holyrood is Different

Despite Labour's 2024 Westminster clean sweep of Glasgow, the SNP still holds most Glasgow Holyrood constituencies. The 2021 Holyrood election saw the SNP win all 9 Glasgow constituency seats. Labour winning those same seats at Holyrood in 2026 would require a swing not yet visible in current polling.

The Greens are also significant in Glasgow, particularly on the list vote. In 2021, the Greens won 2 of the 7 Glasgow regional list seats.

Edinburgh's Political Character

Edinburgh is more politically diverse than Glasgow. It has a higher proportion of graduates and professionals, a strong financial services sector, and a more mixed constitutional preference. Independence polling in Edinburgh typically runs slightly below the Scotland average, with No polling at around 52–54% in most recent surveys.

The city has Holyrood constituencies held by SNP, Labour, and LibDems. Edinburgh Southern has a LibDem MSP. Edinburgh Central is an SNP seat but considered marginal.

The Green Factor in Edinburgh

The Scottish Greens perform above their Scotland average in Edinburgh, particularly in the city-centre and inner-city constituencies. On the Lothian regional list, the Greens typically win 2–3 seats. The Green vote in Edinburgh has an urban, graduate, and socially progressive character that is distinct from the rural independence-focused Green vote elsewhere.

For 2026, Edinburgh's Holyrood constituencies will be some of the most closely contested in Scotland, with Labour, SNP, and in some seats the LibDems, all competing.

Rural Scotland and the SNP

The Highlands and Islands region covers around half of Scotland's land area but less than 10% of its population. The SNP has dominated this region since 2015, but the LibDems retain Orkney Islands and Shetland constituency seats, which they have held for decades based on a distinct island identity.

Independence Sentiment

Independence polling in the Highlands and Islands tracks roughly with the Scotland average, though with significant local variation. Some island communities — particularly those with fishing and agricultural interests — are more sceptical of independence given questions about EU membership post-independence and its impact on Common Fisheries Policy access.

Holyrood List Dynamics

The Highlands and Islands regional list elected 7 MSPs in 2021 from: SNP 2, Conservative 2, Liberal Democrat 1, Labour 1, Green 1. For 2026, Conservative decline and Reform UK's emergence could shake up the list considerably. If Reform wins even one list seat here, it is likely at the expense of a Conservative MSP.

Key Constituencies to Watch

Inverness and Nairn, Caithness Sutherland and Ross, Skye Lochaber and Badenoch are all SNP-held constituency seats. Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) is an SNP constituency. Argyll and Bute is more marginal. Labour's 2024 Westminster gains in the region will not automatically translate to Holyrood.